Fire danger in Tasmania: the next 100 years - a summary for policymakers

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Summary for Policymakers

South-eastern Australia is one of the three most fire-prone areas in the world. Fire danger has increased in recent decades, and is projected to increase further with global warming.
We assessed the regional changes in fire danger that are projected to occur in Tasmania through to 2100 under a high emissions scenario. 
In contrast with previous, continental-scale studies, which show little change in Tasmanian fire danger, our results indicate an overall increase in fire danger, especially in spring, with more days per year likely to require total fire bans. This increase in fire danger will have social and political implications.
The Future Fire Danger study was completed for the Tasmania State Emergency Service funded through its Natural Disaster Resilience Program and is supported by two refereed published papers:
Fox-Hughes P, Harris RMB, Lee G, Grose M & Bindoff N (2014) Future fire danger climatology for Tasmania, Australia, using a dynamically downscaled regional climate model, International Journal of Wildland Fire. Available online: doi: 10.1071/WF13126
Grose MR, Fox Hughes P, Harris RMB & Bindoff, NL (2014) Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate — a case study of southeast Tasmania. Climatic Change. 124, 255–269. doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1070-y
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Bibliography Entry

Type of Publication Miscellaneous
Year of Publication 2014
Authors Fox-Hughes P, Harris RMB
This page was last updated on August 20, 2014