David Bowman (Vegetation and Fire Project) convened a meeting of fire ecologists and vegetation modellers in Hobart (9-11 October 2013) to discuss the challenges of predictive modelling of fire in a time of rapid environmental change. The masterclass included two field excursions into the heart of two of the major bushfire areas of January 2013: The Forcett-Dunalley area and the Collinsvale-Molesworth fire. In a one-day intensive workshop, the fire ecologists and vegetation modellers reviewed climate change model approaches to understand future fire activity.
Participants: Andres Holz, Bec Harris, Dan Jamieson, David Bowman, Dick Williams, Fang Li, Grant Williamson, Hamish Clarke, Jon Marsden-Smedley, Mark Chladil, Matthias Boer, Phil Zylstra, Ross Bradstock, Sam Wood, Sandy Whight, Ted Lefroy
Welcome and Introduction (David Bowman)
Scene Setting Talks
- Bec Harris - Projections, Predictions, or Trends? The challenges of projecting changes to fire regimes under climate change
- Hamish Clarke - Modelling weather and load
- Matthias Boer - Challenges of predicting future fire regimes – top-down or bottom-up approach?
- Ross Bradstock – Fire in the future - the journey may be just as important as the destination
- Dick Williams – Fire futures for a flammable continent - imagining types of change in fire regimes
- Phil Zylstra – Predicting fire behaviour from plant species
- David Bowman - Challenge of predicting fire in response to climate change
The Biggest Modelling Challenges (extracts of each speaker's final slide)
Plenary Guest Presenter - Fang Li - The logic of global models and how you think fire can be built into these models.
Meeting Notes, Actions and Outcomes (David Bowman)
See the article on the Masterclass in the University News.
The 2013 Tasmanian Bushfires Inquiry Report was released on 15 October 2013. The Inquiry Report was prepared by a team led by Special Investigator Mal Hyde. Read more on the Tasmanian Government Inquiry webpage.
See the ABC News story on the release of the Tasmanian Bushfire Report: Damning report on Tasmania's bushfire crisis finds lives probably put at risk.